21, August 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The gross domestic product of the euro area increased for the first time since the third quarter of 2011. The positive release indicates that the region is leaving the recession.

Germany and France data jumped up strongly, Italy and Spain have improved their positions as well. Germany grew by 0.7% after a slight growth of 0.1% in the first quarter and France prevented the downturn and jumped by 0.5% in the second quarter. Further good news came from the German where ZEW economic sentiment rose to 42 from 36.3 in June.

EUR/USD is close important levels. Attention is still focused on the medium-term key resistance at 1.3416.

According to the Ichimoku indicator, the pair is a medium upward trend now. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal. Tenkan-sen is below the price. The Cloud is neutral.

Bollinger bands are widen and directed slightly downward.
The MACD histogram is still located in the positive zone, it does not give clear signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

There is a high probability of moving down, but for this the price must break and consolidate below the strong support at 1.3310. In this case, the closest target is the mark 1.3235; further falling target is 1.3200 which is the lower base of the channel.

Alternative variant

As an alternative, you can expect the formation of the flat between the levels 1.3310 - 1.3230. But before that, as we mentioned above, the price needs to break a support 1.3310.