21, May 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The dollar is most likely to continue growing and this week. The last week some negative data came out from the U.S.: new home construction fell by 16.5% in April, the index of regional manufacturing fell as well, the number of Initial Jobless Claims increased. In spite of this not good data the dollar positions are not bad, the April CPI report showed a decline of inflation to 0.4%.

The pair started the current week at the last week closing point the week began with a small growth. The price is correcting to the upper limit of a downstream from which it most likely will bounce down.

The price is below Chinkou span, the sell signal is strong the price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud. The pair is between Tenkan and Kijun, the Ichimoku cloud is directed down.

Bollinger Bands began to narrow that confirms the correction.
MACD began to grow after reaching its minimum point. Should the indicator turn down it will signal the resumption of the falling.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement continues the pair will meet the first resistance at 1.2800, but if it manages to pass it, the pair may fall to 1.2750.

If the pair grows, according to our estimates, it may go to 1.2930, a Kindzhun-sen level.
We recommend to wait until the correction is over to enter the market from the highest point.