21, March 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The first time, after the Cyprus Parliament refused the loan offered by the European Union, the pair was trading erratically. Yesterday Cypriot lawmakers gathered again to discuss the situation. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether the EU is going to prevent the first default in Evozone, and if so, how it will affect the European economy.

Yesterday it continued to grow.

The pair is below the Ichimoku cloud. The Chinkou Span and Kijun-sen are above the price chart. The pair is being traded below the Cloud.

The downward movement will be as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen.

Bollinger bands are directed aside. The price range is stable.
On the daily chart the MACD histogram is in the negative zone, below the signal line, and is going downward, it is a strong sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If the situation does not stabilize and the leaders of the EU do not come to any decision, the euro could seriously weaken and fall to the level 1.2700. On the other hand, if the Eurogroup does decide to approve loan for Cyprus, it will avoid a default and the pair can show us a good growth.

The pair is being traded below the Kijun-sen. We recommend going short. If the pair returns to a downward movement the first target will be 1.2895 and the second is 1.2840.

If euro continues the correction the pair will go to 1.3000.

When you open orders you need to consider the fundamental analysis as well.