17, August 2016

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)


The European currency was finally able to break through a strategic 61.8 Fibonacci extension level (minimum-maximum uptrend of 2000-2008), which takes place in the region of EUR 1.1995 level. This means that in the medium-long term market returns to the bull trend. The fundamental picture is favorable toward this. The US dollar continues to lose ground, weakening against other major currencies. Dollar index has dropped in the area of ​​ two-month lows below 95 and 94 points. The negative dynamics of the USD is basicaly due to a decrease in the likelihood of rate hike in this year by the Fed. Today's statistics showed that US inflation remains at current boundaries. US consumer price index in July rose 0.1% compared to June, below expectations of analysts, who had forecast an increase of 0.2%. On the contrary, strong data from Europe supported the European currency. Nevertheless, we believe that resistance at 1.1322-1.1330, will not be passed immediately, and the market expects a pullback and consolidation in the 1.1195-1.1235 area, the old resistance area, which now acts as a strong support. In the medium term, we expect the pair to grow to the area EUR1.1440-EUR1.1500