16, June 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The situation in the States started to get better. On Thursday the retail sales turned out to be 0.6% more than it was expected, at the same time the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell to 334 thousand.

Both news had a positive impact on the U.S. economy and contributed to the resumption of the hope that FED will slow or even close its program.

However, the market remains unpredictable. The same Thursday, investors paid attention to the situation in Japan where investors continued to sell foreign stocks. This factor had a stronger impact than the published data in the United States. Against this background, the Japanese currency once again began to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, thereby pushing it down.

Should the pair break 1.3300 it will head up to the area 1.3400. The downward trend may be resumed if the pair turns around and breaks 1.3390.

Trading Recommendations

You should pay attention to the formed divergence which signals about the imminent turning down and change of the trend. The "Dead Cross" is still possible. The probability of its formation is extremely high.

Should it happen the downward trend will continue to the deeper areas. The main goal is the local level 1.3200, the same place where the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud is.