EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)
Recently, the dollar takes a strong position, but we need the truly high retail sales rate to meet the expectations for the monetary policy normalization in the early to mid-2015. The FOMC meeting will be held this week to confirm or refute these assumptions. Also this week, the ECB is launching its new target lending program and a strong demand will be bullish for the euro.
The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.
There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
After the trend line 1.2930 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.2850 will be opened. We do not exclude the level of 1.3000 retest.