15, August 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The market is supported by the positive GDP value of Italy and Spain for the first time in six quarters. The first quarter of 2013 Euro area closed down by 0.2% of GDP in the second quarter the average expectation implies an increase of 0.2%.

EUR/USD fell on Tuesday as U.S. retail sales rose for the fourth straight month in July and revived expectations that the Federal Reserve is ready to begin narrowing of the stimulus at the end of this year and finish it next year. The pair fell to 0.44% from 1.3317. It can possibly find support at 1.3190, the minimum of 2nd August, and resistance at 1.3399, the high of Thursday.

The price is fixed below the critical line, and formed a new "dead cross". The current sell signal is not confirmed and weak, as Chinkou Span is below the price, and the price has just broken the Ichimoku cloud. At this point the downward movement is directed to 1.3190.

If the price passes the first target the downward movement may proceed to the second support level 1.3080.

Bollinger bands show the beginning of a downward movement, the bands widen and directed slightly downward.
MACD is directed down, indicating the current downtrend.

Trading recommendations

The return to growth is possible from the support level 1.3300. The first target is the resistance level 1.3395. As the first approach was accompanied by a rebound to 1.3395 the false retest of the level can not be excluded.