15, July 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The publication of the FOMC minutes and the subsequent performance of Ben Bernanke caused a real euphoria in the markets. The main growth driver was the Bernanke's phrase that America needs "Adaptive stimulating monetary policy” right now. According to him, even if the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, this would not mean that the controller will immediately begin a cycle of rate hikes, which for a while may stay at the lows, depending on the outlook for inflation. 

Analysis of the Forex market for July 15th shows that the price is still in the upward trend now on the weekly chart. The current buy signal is weak and confirmed as Chinkou span is below the price and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud.

The price is being consolidated in a price range 1.3000- 1.3080. The upward movement will be continued as long as the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

Chinkou Span is below the price that is a confirmation of the current buy signal. The Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen are directed upwards. The Kijun-Sen is horizontal. The Cloud has a neutral formation.

Bollinger Bands indicator shows an upward movement, its bands are broadening and directed upwards.
MACD is in a positive area, indicating the current upward movement. The histogram is growing.

Trading Recommendations

Short positions to 1.2980 can be opened in the breakdown of the support level 1.3034. In the future, I would recommend refraining from making deals and wait for steady signal of the end of the correction, or a change of trend.