15, May 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen its positions, as retail sales strengthened expectations related to the fact that the Federal Reserve will close the program of the economy stimulation later this year.

After the release of the April data on the U.S. labor market that showed an unemployment rate of 7.5%, which is the lowest since December 2008, the U.S. dollar began to grow.

Traders support the idea of the dollar's growth. In addition, expectations of further growth are justified by USD/JPY overcoming 100 level and a sudden increase in U.S. bond yields.

The pair is being traded at the level 1.2940. The price is below Chinkou-span, the sell signal is strong, The price is being traded below the Ichimoku cloud. Tenkan and Kijun are higher than the price. Ichimoku cloud is directed downward.

Bollinger bands are widening and directed down.
MACD continued to decline, having reached a maximum point.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture differs from the fundamental data: EUR/USD has a strong potential for growth, but traders are afraid of opening long orders. That’s why we can expect a lateral movement or falling in a short term but growing.

We expect trading in the range 1.3060 - 1.2840.

Should the pair go down the price will fall to 1.2890, having consolidated at this level the pair will continue going to 1.2840.

In case of the correction or growth the pair will set its way towards 1.3000.