15, April 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

On Friday, the pair was being traded near a strong resistance level 1.3120, but could not break through it. The pair bounced off that level and fell to 1.3090 against the background of weak economic data from Germany. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped to -0.2% in March, as it was expected +0.3%.

It is likely that the pair will not fall very much. European statistics on industrial production for February is now of interest, experts expect that it will grow to 0.1%. If this happens the pair will receive additional support and can grow up to 1.3100.
We expect weak news from the U.S., where the index of producer prices fell to 0.2% in March.

The following movement will depend on the economic data. If we get positive news eurusd can break 1.3120. However, before that, the pair could drop to 1.3040 (1.3000), after which the upward movement will continue to new maximums and important resistance level 1.3180.

The Tenkan-Sen line is above the Kijun-Sen. The Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are directed upwards. The Cloud has an upward formation.

Bollinger lines are fixed having formed an upward channel.
MACD is in the positive zone, the indicator begins to decline, it give a strong signal to buy.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to open long positions with profit-taking at the level of 1.3180.

Place a stop loss above the Kijun-sen in the case of a southern movement and below the Kijun-sen, in the case of a north one, respectively. As the price moves we move and stop level after it.

When you open positions consider the fundamental analysis and the time economical news is released.