14, July 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The euro fell against the dollar and the reasons for the euro sales could be as the statistics as well as the policy. The basic France indicators showed the continued weakness – the inflation in the second EU economy had little effect in June compared with May – the consumer prices rose only by 0.5% y/y, when the forecasts hoped for a slight increase to 0.7% y/y rise per month for 0.1% m/m. There are no any reasons for the sentiment change on the euro, as the single currency may continue to decline.

The single currency rapid decline has allowed the sellers to break and consolidate below the intermediate support level of 1.3610. The breakthrough occurred at the volume level and the short-term price pullback to 1.3610 is more likely to lead to a downward trend continuation.

Trading recommendation

The potential decline target is the support of 1.3570. After this retest there is a large probability of a consolidation.