14, May 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

In general, the situation in the eurozone remains difficult. GDP for the 1st quarter of 2013 will be published this week. We predict that the data will confirm that Europe is in a recession.

Germany published its foreign sales index, the foreign trade balance and industrial activity in March was 17.6 billion EUR that is not very good for the country.

Yesterday, China slightly disappointed investors with an average growth of industrial production. The volume of production has dropped to 9.4% since the beginning of 2013.

The price is below Chinkou-span, the sell signal is strong, the price is being traded below the Ichimoku cloud. Tenkan and Kijun are higher than the price, the Ichimoku cloud is directed downward.

Bollinger bands diverge and directed down.
MACD continues going down.

Indicators suggest the falling.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short. The sell signal is strong and confirmed. We believe that the pair is going to consolidate below 1.30 with the prospects of a small correction or a flat. The falling may continue to 1.2890 and 1.2840.