EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)
German trade balance amounted to 15.7 billion euros in June. The European Central Bank cut its growth forecast for the euro currency union, which is struggling to avoid a recession. The ECB also said it would keep interest rates at 0.5 percent for an extended period of time. On the other side of the ocean claims for U.S. unemployment rose slightly comparing with the previous week - 333K. French Industrial Production showed a drop of 1.4 percent during the month.
The number of participants and the volatility of the market has faded. However, looking at the events of the next month, you can expect a fresh volatility in the market and the strengthening of the dollar.
The Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen formed a "golden cross". Kijun-sen is directed down, Tenkan-sen is moving up within the cloud. The price is above the cloud. The price keeps growing.
Bollinger Bands began expanding, the bars form a side corridor.
The MACD histogram is still located in the positive zone, still it is moving to the zero area.
The potential growth, barely begun by the European single currency, is still not able to overcome the barrier 1.34 and therefore all August the pair risks to stay on the current price values, up to the September meeting of the notorious U.S. Federal Reserve.
From the technical point of view, we expect a further downward movement to 1.3340, from 1.3400, we prefer to sell.