12, August 2015

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7.

It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.