09, May 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

In the last month, it was noted the decline in industrial orders in the U.S. by 4%. In Germany, the same index was increased by 4%.

On Monday, Mario Draghi made a statement that the bank was set to soften a monetary policy if indicators would be as weak as they were a few last weeks This is a reminder and hope for the reduction of interest rates by the ECB strengthened the discussing of the prospects for such easing.

The price continues working out the "dead cross", but the movement is very unstable and the signal is weak.

The current sell signal is not confirmed and weak, as Chinkou Span is above the price and the price is in the Ichimoku cloud.

The pair is targeted to the top boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, but we should consider the long orders only when the price consolidates above the Ichimoku cloud.

If the price consolidates above this level the upward movement can continue to the first resistance level 1.3250. An upward movement will be strong as long as the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

Bollinger bands form a side channel, its lines are directed upward
MACD is at the zero level.

Trading recommendations

If the pair continues a north movement it will go towards 1.3250, through an intermediate level 1.32.

In case of return to the southern movement the pair will return under the Cloud and will go to the level 1.3090.