03, September 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

5 meetings of center banks, business activity and employment data in the U.S. on Friday shall have a profound effect on the market this week.

It is likely that the euro/dollar will remain under pressure. The EUR/USD may partially return lost positions, but in the middle of the week the fall may be resumed. If nonfarm payrolls come out as it was expected the EUR/USD may fall below 1.31.

Even if the data on the U.S. labor market does not meet expectations that will not change the medium-term downward trend although it will slow down its continuation.

According to the indicator Ichimoku the pair is located in the medium uptrend on the daily chart. The pair is falling. The pair broke the Ichimoku cloud came down on a couple of levels down . Tenkan -Sen and Kijun -Sen are directed downwards. Tenkan -sen is below the price. The cloud is going down.

Bollinger bands are widen and directed down broadening.
The MACD histogram is located in a negative zone.

Trading recommendations

If the pair fails to break above the downward trend and the resistance level 1.3235, the downward trend will be continued. The first goal is the support level 1.3170. When the price breaks down this level it can open the way to sell to the support level 1.3120 with a retest at 1.3100.

Alternative scenario

If the price bounces from the lower boundary of the descending channel with a further breakthrough the downward trend line and the resistance level 1.3235 that will be a good signal to buy to a strong resistance level 1.3300 - 1.3315.