03, August 2015

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

We expect bearish sentiment prevalence within the pair EUR/USD. The Germany retail sales have decreased by 2.3% from May till June, corrected for the inflation and seasonal variations, still they increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year. Economists had forecasted that the monthly value would remain within the flat. However, the retail sales positive trend remains the same, private consumption will continue to support the European largest economy growth. It is expected that the German economy will expand by 1.8% this year and 2.0% in 2016.

A short-term correction was formed. The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price gets below the Cloud we get a strong sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the decrease will be continued. The first target is 1.0925. The second one is 1.0790.