03, July 2015

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Every day we get a lot of conflicting information about the situation with the "Greek debt." Every day the market is got excited by various rumors, still Greece held a popular referendum on July 5 and parties again sit down at the negotiating table on 6 July. Until that time, we should not pay attention to the publication.

Besides the Greek debt issue another worth mentioning this week event was the June USA NFP. The NFP showed 223K, with previous 250K. The unemployment fell from 5.5% to 5.3. The Initial Jobless Claims is 281000 versus previous 271000. This Friday the US markets are closed amid the Independence Day.

The euro has been down against the US dollar after a sharp pulse up to 300 points аor three days. The price decrease occurs at low volumes and is aimed to break the level of 1.1050. But the price rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Further on we expect the fall towards 1.1050 and 1.0925.