03, June 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Traders were disappointed with the FED as they expected that it will cut the program of asset purchases. As the result the dollar lost its position. Preliminary estimate of GDP growth amounted to 2.4% for the first quarter, from the previous 2.5%.

Two weeks ago, the number of Initial Jons Claims was 344.000, and it grew to 354.000 last week. The U.S. dollar index fell from 83.68 to 82.92.

Now the price is above the Chinkou-span, the sell signal is canceled, we have a strong and confirmed buy signal. EURUSD broke the Ichimoku cloud through and is being traded above it. The pair is above the Kijun and Tenkan, the Ichimoku cloud is directed upward.

Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-sen follow the price up.

Bollinger bands began to expand.
MACD is in positive area now.

Trading recommendations

Although the EUR\USD has a small potential for growing the fact that the dollar is overbought can cause an upward correction. The correction suggests overbought U.S. dollar. The players may find interesting buying on dips towards 1.2975 level with the expectation of growing up to the level of 1.3090 and possibly to 1.3150. In the longer term, we expect resumption of a downtrend, following the forecast for the end of the third quarter at 1.27 and at the end of the year at 1.25.