03, May 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

As it was predicted, the ECB decided to lower the key interest rate to a record low. The rate was reduced from 0.25% to 0.5%.

The ECB's decision was not a surprise to anyone, experts expected it.

The market immediately reacted to the fall of the dollar. The dollar fell from 1.3150 to 1.3060 for an hour.

The signal to buy weakened as Chinkou Span is above the price, the pair is being traded in the Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks through the Cloud down, it will cancel the buy signal.

The price is below the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. Tenkan-Sen is above Kijun-Sen. Tenkan-Sen is directed downward, Kijun-Sen is directed aside. The Cloud stopped in the growth.

Bollinger Bands are broadening and directed upward.
MACD is in a positive zone and started to going down.

Trading recommendations:

We recommend to stay away from trading until the market calms down after the decision of the Central Bank. Now, the price may go up as well as down.

The downward movement is directed toward support levels 1.2940 and 1.300.
Should the price return to the northern movement the pair will rise to 1.3150.

Stop Loss we place below the Kijun-Sen and 1.3085. After getting profit of 50-60 points stop loss can be moved into a break-even.