02, September 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

EUR/USD has experienced one of the worst declines in the past two months. The falling was caused by a weak German data, stronger data from the U.S. and Syrian news. German unemployment claims were slightly higher than expected, while inflation was lower than it was forecasted.

Retail sales in Germany may increase pressure on the euro. According to the latest report of consumer confidence, the forecast for September got worsened. Labour market got worsened as well. PMI index of retail sales remains in a negative territory, but the level of expansion has not changed. This suggests that consumer spending may not be recovered, as economists hoped.

EUR/USD broke the 1.33 short-term support but additional support near 1.3205 resisted. There are resistance levels from 1.3300 to 1.3352, the price needs to break them up to return to growth.

According to the indicator Ichimoku pair is located in the medium uptrend on the daily chart. On the 4H chart , we decline. The pair broke the Ichimoku cloud came down on a couple of levels down . Tenkan -Sen and Kijun -Sen are directed downwards. Tenkan -sen is below the price. The cloud is going down.

Bollinger bands are widen and directed down broadening.
The MACD histogram is located in a negative area.

Trading recommendations

Falling of the price was met by the strong support level 1.3235. The consolidation formed near the level can cause a small rebound up. Should that happen the descending trend has all bases for the continuation. Break of 1.3235 will open the way to one more strong level of support 1.3170.