02, April 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The main news will be the level of unemployment in Europe on Tuesday. According to a forecast there is a decline of one percent. This news can increase the pressure on the euro and drop the pair to a local minimum. But this is not the main news, the major releases are expected at the end of the week.

The pair keeps falling though the week it started with a correction. The pair started the trading day with a falling then returned all positions having obtained new maximums.

The sell signal is strong and confirmed. The Chinkou Span and Kijun-Sen are above the price chart, the pair is being traded below the Ichimoku cloud.

The pair keeps falling. The current target is the level 1.2760 which was tested the last week. If the price is fixed at this level, the downward movement may continue to the level 1.2680.

The downward movement will be relevant as long as the pair is trading under the cloud.

Bollinger Bands show a possible continuation of the correction. Its bands are narrowing and directed upwards.

MACD is turned up that supports the correction movement.

Trading recommendations

In the short term we expect the fall to a local minimum with the possibility to reach the next support level - 1.2680.

Long positions can be opened after a confirmed breakdown of the level 1.2900 followed by a rebound from it as from the support.

An alternative may be the selling after the confirmed breakdown of the next key support levels, for example 1.2760. The second goal is the level 1.2680.

Place a stop loss above the Kijun-sen in the case of a southern movement and below the Kijun-sen, in the case of a north one, respectively. As the price moves we move and stop level after it.

When you open positions consider the fundamental analysis and the time economical news is released.