01, December 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The Germany and Spain CPI preliminary releases showed the consumer prices decrease in annual terms, indicating that the data was at the level of the forecasted medians. In recent months we have seen the monetary aggregate M3 increase money amid the ECB accommodating monetary policy, but it will be not enough to increase inflationary pressure in the current circumstances. The oil market sales also will strengthen the demand for the US dollar.

The four day euro corrective growth against the US dollar was stopped by the downward trend line of 1.2500. The trend line testing was followed by the consolidation with the further prices rebound downwards.

The price rebounded from the trend line to the level of 1.2450 at the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the pair may go to 1.2300.