01, April 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

On the last day of the trading week, the main pair of the market continued to work out an upward trend, although it may be noted that the superiority of bulls is a formality as the trading dynamics are extremely weak and the main players have already left for the Easter holidays.

However, the players are set quite optimistic. France is slowly recovering and may soon join the leaders of a growth, which is, of course, Germany.

Everything would be fine if not Cyprus and Italy. Both countries show uncertainty which does not allow to drop all fears.

The sell signal is strong and confirmed. The pair continues its falling. The Chinkou Span and Kijun-Sen are above the price chart, the pair is being traded below the Ichimoku cloud. Everything supports a bearish mood of traders.

The pair keeps falling the current target is the level 1.2760 which was tested the last week. If the price is fixed at this level, the downward movement may continue to the level 1.2680.

The downward movement will be relevant as long as the pair is trading under the cloud. The pair is in the flat at the moment.

Bollinger midline is directed downwards. Price range narrowed last Friday.

MACD is ready to form a buy signal. The histogram started to grow still it is still in a negative zone. It is recommended to wait for more clear signals to enter the market.

Trading recommendations

The pair is likely to show flat dynamics in the nearest future. Where the pair will go we will find out only in the beginning of the week.

Long positions can be opened after a confirmed breakdown of the level 1.2900 followed by a rebound from it as from the support.

An alternative may be the selling after the confirmed breakdown of the next key support levels, for example 1.2760. The second goal is the level 1.2680.

Place a stop loss above the Kijun-sen in the case of a southern movement and below the Kijun-sen, in the case of a north one, respectively. As the price moves we move and stop level after it.

When you open positions consider the fundamental analysis and the time economical news is released.