Downswing got a distinct bullish close yesterday after touch of the 1302 handle. At the same time, yesterday’s bar isn’t a direct long signal from the price action point of view (some pros could qualify it as a “bad pin”). Therefore it’s not clear so far whether buyers will manage to launch a climb from this zone (watch the black arrow) or market will demand testing of the 1296.21-1297.88 zone (watch the red arrow).
We can note within local structure a very strong key support zone 1307.74-1308.06. In case of move below this area, we are to expect further development of a downswing (red arrow).
While this break is absent, we have a solid probability of upward reversal (black arrow).
Thus daily forecasts can be set around the 1307.74-1308.06 region, where market might get a substantial dynamics to both sides.
Main scenario: Growth from the 1307.74-1308.06 zone towards 1316.00.
Alternative scenario: Break of the support 1307.74-1308.06 and decline in direction 1296.21-1297.88.
Below 1307.74-1308.06 - shorts towards 1296.21-1297.88.
Above 1307.74-1308.06 - longs towards 1316.00.