Negative dynamics for american dollar is in progress and it may slide days in direction of lower Bollinger band (14.4721) in the coming days. At the same time potential of ADX is not too big, therefore there are chances for second testing of 14.7796-14.8209 (middle Bollinger band).
We note presence of gap which is frequently being covered by the market before continuation of decline. Thus we have two scenarios: first one - pullback to the middle Bollinger band (14.9483) and then decline in direction 14.6535 (red trajectory), second - completion of decline to 14.6535 and then upward pullback in direction 14.9483 (red trajectory).
On hourly chart bears keep pressure, though probability of upward correction also preserves. As we type this report an attempt to break lower Bollinger band is in progress. Thus downward forecast is the main option for today.
Main scenario: Decline towards 14.6535 and then upward bounce.
Alternative scenario: Upward correction to 14.8209 and perhaps 14.9483.
Shorts to 14.6535.
Longs from 14.6535.