Intensive upward correction of the pair is in progress. It may quite become a full upward reversal as earlier bears failed to break lower Bollinger band.
Thus middle Bollinger band (14.3361) is a key level now: its break will drive to recovery of the quotes towards 14.5295 (watch the red arrow).
But a probability of downward bounce off 14.3361 is in place as well since downtrend was quite strong and might have some residual inertia (black trajectory).
Local upward structure is getting ready to test 14.3361. ADX didn’t gain trending power here, therefore we have a high probability of pullback in direction of the pivot-zone 14.0616-14.1203 (watch the black trajectory). Break of resistance 14.3361 will provide bulls with the space up to the 14.5295 level (watch the red arrow).
On hourly chart buyers managed to break upper Bollinger band (round red mark) creating a signal of the quotes’ growth continuation. At the same time ADX didn’t reach trend zone so far making possible a pullback to the middle band (14.1203), where we have the most optimal buy entry point.
Decline to 14.1203 and then new upward momentum in direction 14.3361 with aim at 14.5295.
Longs from 14.1203 to 14.3361 and 14.5295 (extraday).