Bullish wave sharply dampened during attempt of testing upper Bollinger band (4.1917-4.1970 zone) and today market undergoes active correction to the downside. There is a very stiff support at middle Bollinger band (4.1565) ahead. But if it’s broken the pair will tumble deeper, to the 4.1221 region. This second target is mid-term of course: it took more than two weeks for buyers to climb from this zone to current levels. Now market probably will fall during the same period.
Local downward wave might be stalled at support zone 4.1565-4.1625 (lower Bollinger band). We could consider deeper decline only in case this zone is broken (watch the red arrow).
On hourly chart we can note local strategic support 4.1710 at lower Bollinger band. As we see in case of break the structure will get proportions of “Head-and-shoulders” pattern, that would drive to slump of the quotes. Therefore bulls probably will be poised to guard this zone. Both scenarios should be acknowledged as equiprobable.
Main scenario: Upward bounce off 4.1710 and growth in direction 4.1917-4.1970.
Alternative scenario: Break of support 4.1710 and fall towards 4.1400.
Above 4.1710 - longs towards 4.1917-4.1970.
Below 4.1710 - shorts towards 4.1400.