Technical analytics

USDJPY market technical outlook

USDJPY

Daily chart:

Approach to strong mid-term resistance 109.637 at upper Bollinger band goes on the back of relatively weak ADX casting doubts on upward break. 

Nevertheless the trend is confidently upward, therefore we need to consider both potential scenarios (watch the blue and red arrows).

H4-chart:

Here we can note the presence of bullish pressure, that makes scenario with break of resistance 108.637-108.705 the major option (watch the red arrow).

If buyers eventually fail to overcome this barrier, downward correction most likely will reach support zone 108.856-108.911 (middle Bollinger band).

H1-chart:

We should acknowledge that situation is arguable: there are overbought conditions and divergence of oscillator, but at the same time here we have a tangible pressure of ADX. Thus upper Bollinger band (109.906) is a key resistance today, where market might be apt to downward pullback in direction 109.376.

Expectations:

Main scenario: Growth to 109.906 and then downward reversal in direction 109.376.

Alternative scenario: Break above 109.906 and settling at the 110th figure.

Trading recommendations:

  1. Shorts from 109.906 to 109.376.

  2. Careful longs with count on break of 109.906 to 109.400-109.500.

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