Bears possess a positioning advantage. Upswing is completed and the major resides at the very complex pivot 1.2954-1.2960, which is very tough to break. Thus there is quite a big likelihood of the new downswing launch.
But the situation is not that straight! We see that bulls keep very good intraday momentum, therefore they have big odds to break 1.2954-1.2960. Should it happen the pound will head to 1.3069, where the closest structure’s high resides.
Local upward structure undergoes the stage of trending swing development so far, also casting doubts whether bears are capable to stop bulls. Key resistance level now is 1.2980, which might trigger a correction to 1.2937 (red trajectory). Otherwise buyers will overcome this barrier and head to attack round level 1.3000.
Main scenario: Continuation of growth to 1.3000 with aim at further movement to 1.3069.
Alternative scenario: Testing of 1.2980 and then decline to 1.2937.
Longs to 1.3000 and 1.3069.
Shorts from 1.2980 to 1.2937 (in case alternative scenario pans out).