Flat, which this asset undergoes for many days, got some signs of bullish momentum, that probably will allow market to test middle Bollinger band (1.2353). Though the moves so far mostly mixed and chaotic.
Local downward phase of the movement, where the market resides at the moment, is directed to middle Bollinger band (1.2164). Given that break of upper Bollinger band was recorded earlier there is a high probability of new downward wave from this zone (watch the black trajectory).
In case of break of support 1.2164 the major will drop to lower Bollinger bands with the prospect of decline at 1.2066 (red arrow).
Intraday decline goes on the back of strong bearish ADX. We expect testing of the 1.2164 level and reaction on it. We should acknowledge it a very strong support, therefore rebound is the main scenario.
Main scenario: Decline towards 1.2164 and then upward bounce.
Alternative scenario: Break of support 1.2164 and decline to 1.2100.
Shorts towards 1.2166.
Longs from 1.2166.