Yesterday the price got an explicit bounce off support 1.2165 having formed a bullish pin at the tip of downswing. But today’s downward pullback already exceeded 50% of this pin, therefore there is a chance of quotes decline much below the 1.2165 mark (red arrow).
Buyers have positioning advantage in this situation, therefore scenario of growth prevails so far.
Local upward structure got an upward reversal via bullish pattern Over&Under, which is already triggered. Nevertheless it will be very tough to go above resistance zone 1.2238-1.2241 today. We’ll probably see one more pullback from this zone to 1.2200-1.2209, where buyers will regain control. But this most likely will happen after the weekend.
Main scenario: Growth to 1.2238-1.2241, then decline to 1.2200-1.2209 and the main phase of reversal afterwards.
Alternative scenario: Break above 1.2241 and growth to 1.2300.
Longs to 1.2238-1.2241.
Shorts from 1.2238-1.2241 to 1.2200-1.2209.
New longs from 1.2200-1.2209.
In case an alternative scenario (break above 1.2241) pans out - longs to 1.2300.