Downward potential continues to accumulate at the area of resistance 1.2738 (middle Bollinger band) - a typical bearish “tail” of the bar was received from this level yesterday.
Thus we can expect development of decline of the quotes in direction of the lower Bollinger band (1.2502, watch the pink arrow).
Given the release of significant news in the US there is a risk of price ejection to the upper bands, that would open room for growth in direction 1.2974 (black trajectory).
Local upward wave is limited by the resistance level 1.2738 (merger area of daily middle and H4-upper Bollinger bands). This zone is the most perspective for short-trades today.
Position of ADX indicator better corresponds to flat market. It’s apparently insensitive to standing by market. It seems, that the trading range will be limited by Bollinger bands till release of the NFP data (1.2678-1.2716).
Main scenario: Flat in the 1.2678-1.2716 range, then ejection towards 1.2738 and then slump in direction 1.2502.
Alternative scenario: Break above 1.2738 and further growth in direction 1.2900.
Shorts from the 1.2738 level towards 1.2502.
Longs above 1.2738 towards 1.2900.