It’s a critical day to a large extent today: the major resides below strong resistance zone 1.2974-1.3011, which is capable to reverse the trend to the downside if bulls don’t find reserves for a break.
From technical analysis point of view buyers don’t have too many reasons for concerns. But fundamental factors (in particular, release of Non-Farm Payrolls data today) might bring any surprises. Therefore we should consider both upward and downward scenarios.
Local upward structure has a break of very narrow consolidation, which confirms good further prospects for bulls (watch the blue arrow). However this break looks false so far, therefore key resistance zone is still 1.2974.
Main scenario: Break above 1.2974 and growth towards 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200.
Alternative scenario: Decline under 1.2923 will drive to downward reversal of the pair and drop to 1.2850 and 1.2800.
Longs towards 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200.
In case of drop below 1.2923 - shorts towards 1.2850 and 1.2800.