The euro keeps potential for growth in direction of the mid-term resistance zone 1.1937-1.1951, where the upper Bollinger band resides. We can’t rule out a short-term momentum to the psychological level 1.20, but overall the major looks poised for downward reversal.
Local trending potential so far remains on a relatively low level, therefore the major will be also getting strong resistance at the upper boundary of the range 1.1827-1.1895 (the scope of Bollinger bands).
Key zone today is 1.1890-1.1893, where a bearish pin bar was formed earlier - an important sell signal. However here we need to note a retention of upward tone in the shape of growing ADX and the upper Bollinger band. Thus in case of settling above 1.1893 we would expect reaching 1.1937-1.1951 (red arrow).
Main scenario: Growth to 1.1937-1.1951.
Alternative scenario: Downward reversal from 1.1890-1.1893 and decline in direction 1.1822.
Longs, reckoning on break of 1.1893, to 1.1937-1.1951.
Shorts from 1.1937-1.1951.
Shorts from 1.1890-1.1893 are possible (in case of bulls’ inability to break this zone). The target is 1.1822.