Downswing has reached the very stiff pivot-zone 1,1262-1.1276, where bulls are getting a chance to launch a new trending upswing in direction of the last high (1.1348, watch the red arrow). It’s also favored by the fact, that corrective swing is fully completed.
An argument in favor of bears is the fact, that direct long-signal at the tip of downswing wasn’t formed yet and there is a probability for further decline to the 1.1217 zone (watch the black arrow).
Local structure keeps the shape of downtrend so far, but bears couldn’t post another low yet, that is an obligatory attribute of downtrend.
The key resistance zone is 1.1281-1.1286, where bears can regain control (watch the black arrow).
In case this level is broken to the upside a threat of break of the closest local high 1.1303 emerges, that would reverse the trend upwards and traders could open long-trades towards 1.1350.
Main scenario: Touch of the 1.1281-1.1284 zone and then decline in direction 1.1217.
Alternative scenario: Break above 1.1303 and further growth in direction 1.1350.
Below 1.1284 - shorts towards 1.1217.
Above 1.1303 - longs towards 1.1350.