Upswing at this moment is again trying to settle above the resistance level 1.1262. It’s going to be quite tough to perform, since amplitude of the swing is very big already. Besides the first alarm for the bulls was a false break of this level yesterday.
But at the same time there are no direct short-triggers so far, therefore in case of break higher we can expect growth of the euro towards the 1.1324 level, where a long-term resistance level resides.
Local upward structure also looks a bit exhausted. As we type this report the market resides within “double bottom” formation, which is a reversal sign. If bulls fail to break the 1.1276 level after all (watch the blue marks on the chart), a strong downward correction may run in direction of the pivot-level 1.1189 (blue trajectory). If break above 1.1276 takes place, this will reveal domination of buyers and correspondingly trigger further growth in direction 1.1324.
Main scenario: Decline towards 1.1189.
Alternative scenario: Break above 1.1276 and growth towards 1.1324.
Below 1.1276 - shorts towards 1.1189.
Above 1.1276 - longs towards 1.1324.
In case of main scenario longs from 1.1189 will be also available.
In case of alternative scenario shorts from 1.1324 will be also available.