Market is prone to work off the bearish inside bar, which was formed after a touch of the upper Bollinger band (46.20-46.58) on Thursday, November 26. The target of downward correction is the middle Bollinger band (41.30-41.80). Strong intermediate support zone is 43.23-43.83, which can slow down the downward wave substantially.
We note the important local key support zone 44.60-44.70 (lower Bollinger band), which will prevent the market from dropping until ADX indicator enters the trending zone. So far, as we see, ADX drops, that will postpone a scenario of decline for a while (not cancelling it).
Overall, actual targets for mid-term short trades on oil are 42.65-42.85, 41.60-41.70.
Intraday dynamics of ADX is on a trending level, therefore sellers can regain control at any moment. Trading tactics might be either pending shorts from the middle Bollinger band (45.21-45.33) or shorts, reckoning on break of support 44.60. The closest target is 43.30.
Main scenario: Break of support 44.60 and decline to 43.30.
Alternative scenario: Upward pullback to 45.21-45.33, then downward reversal in direction 43.30 (extraday).
Shorts from 45.21-45.33 to 43.30.
Shorts, reckoning on break of support 44.60, to 43.30.