So, we have to declare January a very unsuccessful month for buyers - a false upward break of December’s bullish inside bar was recorded by the end of the month. This may tell about very poor perspectives of upswing development and about high chances of the new downswing launch.
At the same time it’s strategically important for bears as well to have upswing fully completed. A renewal of the January’s high (1.1569) is necessary to achieve that (watch the trajectory of red arrow). Such scenario looks quite realistic due to presence of the strong PPZ 1.1553-1.1615 at this area (marked with yellow colour).
There is another way as well. In case of break and stabilizing above the 1.1615 handle, bulls will get the chance for recovery of the euro towards 1.2093 (watch the black arrow), where it’s easy to notice a sell offer zone, which was formed within the bearish pattern Over&Under.
Main scenario: Growth to the 1.1600-1.1615 region and then sharp downward reversal as a starting point of new downswing.
Alternative scenario: Breakout above 1.1615 and close of the month above this handle.
Local longs in direction 1.1600-1.1615.
Seeking for sell signals at the 1.1600-1.1615 area.