Fundamental analytics

British pound and euro feel confident today, USD dollar consolidates

This year, the British pound rose against the dollar, after the euro the British currency is the strongest of the world's major currencies this year. For the year, the pound grew by 8.5% against the US dollar and this amid the Brexit process. Recent growth led the pair GBP / USD under the trend line, starting at the highs of the mid-2014 (just below $ 1.72), and the September maximum of 2017 ( $ 1.3660). In this sense, from the point of  medium-term view, the British currency is in an interesting position at the last trading sessions. While the GBP / USD market could not gain a foothold above the level of this line, despite the gains of the last days, the pair is under increasing pressure, as evidenced by declining local highs. Nevertheless, if the pair GPB / USD can consolidate above this medium-term line, the outlook for the British currency can get improving. First, the GBP / USD pair will test a four-week high near 1.3690, (the level seems to be strong enough). The next medium-term target is level 1.40.

Yesterday EUR / USD continued its restrained gaining, being at balance levels within the formed channel 1.1711-1.1880. There were not serious fundamental data for this. Just inflation data were published, which fully corresponded to the market expectations (1.5% with the forecast and the indicator of the previous reporting period 1.5%). But as further developments showed, this was quite enough to strengthen the single European currency, although the data can not be called strong since the current level of inflation in the EU still remains well below the ECB target of 2%.

At the beginning of the American session, the bears managed to win back some of the ground lost earlier in the day. Yesterday, important macroeconomic data was not published in the US, so the strengthening of the dollar was primarily due to the expectations of the markets on the adoption by the US Congress of a coordinated package of the bill on reforming the tax system in the United States. According to the information, the voting on the draft law can pass already today and if he finally will be accepted, Trump will be able to sign it before the end of 2017.

Today, the single European currency is still quite confident against USD dollar. The price is rising on the eve of the publication of a rather important indicator of the business climate index of Germany's IFO. There is a high probability that the actual data will be either at or above the forecasted figure of 117.6, which can provide very strong support for the euro. 

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