28, March 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

In comparison with the U.S. dollar, the British pound fell again. The desire not to lose profits from open long positions pound remains the same. Yesterday presented data on the economy of the "islands" gave confidence to foreign currency. The report on retail sales in March Confederation of British Industry (CBI), all indices show disappointing results. The index of retail sales fell in March to 0, compared to eight in February. This could increase the negative mood. Although it is expected that retail index forecast to increase up to 15 in April. Finance Minister D. Osborne Britain said nothing special in Parliament. We wait for the final estimate of GDP for the 4th quarter.

According to the analytical forecasts of economists, there should not be major changes and it will remain 0.3% q / q, -0.3% q / k. Market participants are now very aware of what is happening to the "islands" because there are threats of rating downgrades England. Therefore, the appearance of deviations from the expected values of the principal index of the economy, especially the negative, the reaction is expected to be adequate. Will be important for the market of the current account balance for the last quarter of last year, which is expected to increase in the deficit to 13.0 billion pounds from -12.8 billion, which had been previously. This situation also add negative connotation in the drafting of opinions on the "cable".

At the moment, almost pound recovered yesterday's losses. We believe that today the British show resistance to European political negativity. Also, if we get positive indices of the U.S. GDP for the 4th quarter, the pound will grow.