25, February 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

In the UK, data on public finances, according to the highly respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, will be a disappointment for George Osborne. While preparing the budget the Chancellor which will be present the next month, it will probably be disappointed by the current finances. January is an important month for income, but, despite the increase in the income tax rate, it was partially offset by a very slow growth of income tax. Together they yield less tax revenue growth forecast for the year as a whole. Costs are higher than a forecast was, due to the strong rise in the cost of benefits and the management of public services.

As a result, borrowing now are almost 7 billion pounds higher than in December. Therefore, borrowing is likely to be slightly higher than last year's levels, though still a lot of uncertainty and this may be changed in the next two months.

The level of income and expenditure in the medium term is more important than the level of debt. Some of the additional borrowing this year connected with unspent than it was expected.

Everyone is more concerned about a slow growth of tax revenues and rapid growth in spending on social benefits, if it continues in the following years the planned fiscal tightening may be increased.