22, February 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The even decline of the pound is accelerated.

Investors are waiting for British pound weakening (there are many stop orders and pending sell orders just above 1.54), and the pair falls it will go to the lowest level since July 2010 on their own protocol, and then to the U.S. Federal Reserve protocols. "There is a sense that the UK economy is mired in the mud, - said Gabriel de Kock of Morgan Stanley. According to him, despite a significant decline of the pound in the last month, there is still room for reduction.

Morgan Stanley expects the pair will trade at 1.45 by the end of next year. Kok notes that there is a high risk that the pound will fall faster than it did before.
GBP came under strong pressure from the Bank of England, which showed that Mervyn King, along with David Miles and Paul Fisher wanted the Bank of England increased the size of the program to buy bonds which was a surprise to the market.

The Bank of England recently raised its forecast for inflation, which is a terrible risk that puts additional pressure on the GBP/USD.

RSI bearish and indicates a continued fall.

Bears triumph - the last year minimum (1.5260) is penetrated.

On the weekly chart the long-term model is broken and if we take into consideration the breakdown of the last year's lows, we seem to have returned to long-term bearish trend.

Sales for corrective rise (until dropping to 1.5500) looks sensible strategy. When central bank policy, where the team seeks in opposite directions, this pair may be one of the big engines in the coming weeks.