30, May 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Yesterday, the market was dominated by the U.S. reports starting with the GDP growth estimates second revision results publication in the first quarter of this year. There was also a primary Initial Jobless Claims. The monthly analysis of pending sales transactions attracted players to the housing market again.

According to the GDP growth preliminary estimates which were announced by the government, the U.S. economy has slowed to a crawl in the 2014 first quarter. The economist’s median forecast indicates the 0.5% GDP decrease in the first three months of this year.

The ECB representative’s statements about the upcoming changes in the European regulator monetary policy indicate the negative prospects for the euro – there is a pressure on the single currency and the pound.

The Initial Jobless Claims probably decreased again last week and the pending home sales number in the secondary market in April grew by 1.1 % m/m vs. 3.4 % m/m in March. We can assume about dollars growth stop, the cause of which may be several factors - strong support levels for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, the emotions on a negative GDP revaluation, as well as the important events expectations that have been scheduled for next week.

The euro fell after weak data on the Germany labor market, falling below 1.36 for the first time since February. The number of unemployed in Germany rose for the first time in six months, an increase on 24 thousand while we expected the decrease by 15 thousands.

The pound fell to a six -week low against the dollar on weak retail sales data. The volume index of retail sales from the CBI in May fell to 16 compared to 30 in April, while expected growth to 35.
The Swiss franc fell to mid-February dollar low amid the Swiss GDP data for the 1st quarter which grew by 0.5 % q / q against expected growth of 0.6%. The consumption indicator fell from UBS in April to 1.72 against 1.84 in March.