30, January 2015

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

There was the central event of the week - the US Federal Reserve announced the monetary policy meeting results. In anticipation of this event the major pairs consolidated as traders refrained from active trading. The monetary regulator pointed out to the fact that we should not expect the first rate hike within the federal funds till June. The short-term inflation forecasts have been revised downwards, it was noted the labor market rapid recovery. The FOMC representatives consider the energy prices decrease as a favorable factor for the household expenditure increase that will maintain high economic growth. It should also be noted that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged was unanimous while the FOMC three representatives voted for monetary policy tightening at the meeting in December 2014.

Despite the Fed conservative rhetoric, traders were in no hurry to liquidate long positions within the US dollar. The dollar significantly increased only against the pound.