29, September 2014

Fundamental analysis

 EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 85.20. The EUR/USD set a new local minimum for the last 22 months - traders continue to sell off the euro against the ECB "cheap money" policy. The 10-year German state bonds profit abilities differential dropped back below 1% which confirms the deflationary sentiment presence in the Old World.

The pound fell at the end of the last week. It is important to note that before this the GBP/USD has consolidated near the 63rd figure. Mark Carney’s comments were able to support the moderate pound demand– the Bank of England president stated that the time for the rate increase was getting closer and was delayed for a long time after the first increase that was critical to the UK real estate market.

The USD/JPY has continued to develop a bullish trend despite the US negative macroeconomic data. The August orders for consumer durables decreased by 18.2%, indicating to a quite restrained private consumption in the third quarter. It should be noted that the US macroeconomic releases showed a mixed trend the last week and now we cannot speak about the strong economic growth, similar to that we saw in the second quarter this year.