28, November 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The US dollar is under pressure the whole week. The pair EUR/USD was able to consolidate above the level of 1.2400 amid the German and the US Treasuries bond spreads reduction. The US macroeconomic statistics was generally positive – the durable goods orders increased by 0.4% in October. We should also note the personal consumption expenditures index growth to the level of year on year 1.6%. The Fed focuses namely on this indicator, determining the consumer activity. The new buildings rate sales in October stopped short before the predicted value. Despite the positive background - the euro again showed weakness.

Institutional investors continue to take profits on the short positions within the pair GBP/USD. Despite the UK moderate negative statistics – the pound tested the 58th figure during the day. The retail sales release according to the industrials confederation data (CBI) for November came out worse than the forecasted medians. We should also note a sharp investment decline for the third quarter. As we noted above, to the contrary, the US statistics showed a positive trend. At the moment of quotation the pair pound/dollar fell to the mark of 1.5736.

The pair USD/JPY was under pressure most of the day – traders, concerned about the Bank of Japan governor’s statement that the monetary authorities are worried about the strong yen devaluation, getting rid of the long positions. The price reached the level of 117.45, but then after the US positive macroeconomic statistics bulls were able to recover some lost ground.