28, September 2015

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

By the end of the week the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German government bond yields growth relative to the US and the UK counterparts. The Germany Ifo business sentiment rose up from 108.4 to 108.5 in September against the decline expectations of 107.8, the Italy retail sales rose by 0.4% in July. The ECB LTRO program concessional loans volume amounted to only 15.5 billion euros against the expected 50.3 billion and 73.8 billion euros in the last deployment.

The August US durable goods purchase orders were worse than expected. The basic indicator, excluding the transportation component has not shown any increase (0.0%) against the expected 0.2%, total orders fell by 2.0% as it was expected. Against this background, the euro was able to start its correctional movement upwards.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically decreased after the US primary market housing sales positive release for August. The US new homes sales jumped from 522K to 552K (+ 5.7%) – such a similar indicator was only in March 2008. Also, initial jobless claims figures continue to please investors: 267K vs. 271K. Pound continues to decrease against the dollar.

The USD/JPY pair had decreased amid the capital escape from the "risky assets". This is due to the fact that the yen has become more attractive for investors.