28, July 2014

EUR/USD Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The EUR/USD consolidates near the strong resistance level of 1.3476. The Markit Economics published the manufacturing sector PMI in France and Germany. The reports showed the mixed trend. The France figure has been decreasing for four consecutive months, indicating the structural problems presence. The Germany release was better than the forecasted medians signaled to the market that the Germans will pull the whole Eurozone economy. The neutral background and the short oversold euro/dollar pushed "bears" to feel comfortable to take profits on the short positions.

The UK retail sales release went on 0.1% below the consensus forecast, but it was enough to the "bears" to disperse the GBP/USD below the 70th figure. The wages reduction has a strong negative impact on a consumer confidence in the short term developing the negative impact on the inflation. Apparently, the market participants are already tired of the pound high rate and begin to open the short positions in the first successful opportunities.

The Japan and the United States stock markets continue to enjoy a support from the investors which increases the demand for the USD/JPY. Even the negative macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. new buildings sales could not spoil the "bulls" mood - the primary market sales in June fell by 8.1%. But it is difficult to judge the U.S. consumer confidence weakness strength on the one negative report.