28, January 2016

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The market was able to develop immunity towards the Chinese stock market bad news. The Chinese index again lost more than 6%, still only the gold reacted to this news with a growth the rest currencies remained at their positions.

The US economic data came out neutral. The January service sector business activity index came in at 53.7 versus the December value of 54.3. The forecast was 53.9. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board showed an increase from 96.3 to 98.1.

As expected the Fed statements were quite "dovish". The regulator is concerned about the further economy development and does not exclude the further rate hike in March.

Investors stake on the dollar strengthening. According to GfK the Germany consumer confidence index surfaced a decline from 9.4 to 9.3 in February. According to the BBA the December Mortgage Approvals showed 43.975Kwith the expectations of 45K. The December New Home Sales came in at 0.544M.

The Japanese yen is growing on expectations that the Friday Central Bank meeting will be a soft one.